Premier League 2026/27, Matchweek 9
Every match. One honest call.
All 10 fixtures this round, Saturday to Monday. Each one gets a short match story and the single most defensible prediction we can find, locked before kickoff and marked right or wrong after the final whistle. When the evidence is thin, we say pass.
How many should land?
3 of 6 is within the normal range for these probabilities: no sign of a problem, and no sign of brilliance either.
Exact calculation from each tip’s locked probability, treating matches as independent. It is the yardstick for reading results, not a prediction of its own.
Saturday 31 October
8 matchesFull time 2–0
Our ratings expect about 1.8 goals for Chelsea and 1.5 for Man United, so Chelsea are slight favourites — 46% home win, 23% draw, 32% away win.
Could spoil it: 32% chance it fails. Likeliest losing score 1–2.
Full time 0–1
Our ratings expect about 1.9 goals for Man City and 1.2 for Brighton, so Man City are favourites — 55% home win, 22% draw, 23% away win.
Could spoil it: 42% chance it fails. Likeliest losing score 1–1.
Full time 2–0
Our ratings expect about 1.5 goals for Bournemouth and 1.1 for Leeds, so Bournemouth are slight favourites — 44% home win, 26% draw, 30% away win.
Could spoil it: 30% chance it fails. Likeliest losing score 0–1.
Full time 3–1
Our ratings expect about 1.2 goals for Coventry and 1.2 for Sunderland, so it is a genuinely open match — 37% home win, 28% draw, 35% away win.
Could spoil it: 37% chance it fails. Coventry has little recent Premier League data, so the rating leans on a cautious prior.
Full time 2–2
Our ratings expect about 1.8 goals for Hull and 1.0 for Ipswich, so Hull are favourites — 55% home win, 23% draw, 22% away win.
Could spoil it: 45% chance it fails. Hull has little recent Premier League data, so the rating leans on a cautious prior.
Full time 2–0
Our ratings expect about 1.6 goals for Brentford and 1.1 for Nott'm Forest, so Brentford are slight favourites — 48% home win, 25% draw, 27% away win.
Could spoil it: 27% chance it fails. Likeliest losing score 0–1.
Full time 2–0
Our ratings expect about 1.6 goals for Tottenham and 1.2 for Crystal Palace, so Tottenham are slight favourites — 47% home win, 25% draw, 28% away win.
Could spoil it: 28% chance it fails. Likeliest losing score 0–1.
Full time 1–1
Our ratings expect about 1.5 goals for Aston Villa and 1.1 for Fulham, so Aston Villa are slight favourites — 48% home win, 25% draw, 26% away win.
Could spoil it: 26% chance it fails. Likeliest losing score 0–1.
Sunday 1 November
1 matchMonday 2 November
1 matchHow to read a card. The bar shows the model’s probability for the Super Tip. The thin dark tick marks how often that same outcome happens in a typical Premier League match, so the gap between them is what makes this fixture different. A pass means nothing cleared our bar; we still show the strongest candidate and grade it, so you can judge whether passing was right. Probabilities are estimates, not promises.