Saturday 31 October, 17:30 UK time
Tottenham HotspurvCrystal Palace
Pass
No recommendation for this match. The strongest option barely differs from what happens in a typical Premier League match. Strongest candidate, not recommended: Tottenham win or draw (72%).
The candidate would need: Tottenham must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.
How likely: the model rates it about 7 in 10 (72%), so in similar matches it would still fail about 3 times in 10. A probability, not a promise.
Why it was considered: The rating model gives “Tottenham win or draw” a 72% chance, against 68% in a typical Premier League match over the last three seasons.
What could spoil it: the likeliest losing score is 0–1 (a model illustration, 7%); together the losing scores make up 28%.
Settled on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Postponed, abandoned or cancelled matches are void.
Why this call
The rating model gives “Tottenham win or draw” a 72% chance, against 68% in a typical Premier League match over the last three seasons.
This season Tottenham have scored 8 and conceded 10 in 8 league games; Crystal Palace 9 and 19 in 8.
Out-of-sample check (2024/25–2026/27, 213 matches): when the model rated this market 70–80%, it landed 161 times (76%).
What could spoil it
The model still leaves 28% for this to fail; the likeliest losing score is 0–1.
The evidence behind the numbers
What the locked forecast says
Stored when the prediction was locked (30 Oct, 23:10 GMT, version 1, model tl-poisson-v1.1). These numbers are never recomputed, so later results or data cannot change them.
| Result | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tottenham to win | 47% |
| Draw | 25% |
| Crystal Palace to win | 28% |
Model scoring expectation: Tottenham 1.60, Crystal Palace 1.18 goals. This comes from the team-strength ratings, not from a shot-quality (xG) data feed. Uncertainty ranges and a factor-by-factor breakdown were not stored with this prediction, so none is shown for it. How the live model was tested.
Every possible score Model illustration from the locked scoring expectation; hover or tap a score.
Final score
Tottenham 2–0 Crystal Palace
7.9% chance of exactly this score (before kickoff).
Super Tip, Tottenham win or draw: wins
✓ Wins: Tottenham to win · Tottenham win or draw · Under 2.5 total goals · Under 3.5 total goals · Over 1.5 total goals · At least one team fails to score · Tottenham over 1.5 goals · Crystal Palace not to score
✗ Loses: Draw · Crystal Palace to win · Crystal Palace win or draw · Over 2.5 total goals · Both teams to score · Crystal Palace over 1.5 goals · Tottenham not to score
Percentages, darker = likelier. ✓ marks scores where the Super Tip wins: together 71.8%, matching the locked 71.8%. Most likely single score: 1–1 (11.7%). Scores with 6+ goals for a side: 0.7%. FT marks the final score.
Every market we priced Compared with a historical base rate, not a bookmaker price.
| Market | Model | Historical base rate | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 total goals | 47% | 42% | |
| Crystal Palace not to score | 31% | 25% | |
| Under 3.5 total goals | 70% | 65% | |
| Tottenham to win | 47% | 43% | |
| Tottenham win or draw ★ | 72% | 68% | |
| At least one team fails to score | 45% | 42% | |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | |
| Tottenham over 1.5 goals | 47% | 49% | |
| Tottenham not to score | 20% | 22% | |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 58% | |
| Crystal Palace to win | 28% | 32% | |
| Crystal Palace win or draw | 53% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 total goals | 53% | 58% | |
| Over 1.5 total goals | 77% | 82% | |
| Crystal Palace over 1.5 goals | 33% | 39% |
The base rate is how often each outcome happened in Premier League matches over about three seasons; the gap to it is what makes a fixture distinctive. It is not a bookmaker price and says nothing about betting value. Model scoring expectation (from team ratings, not a shot-quality xG feed): Tottenham 1.60, Crystal Palace 1.18. Totals and both-teams-to-score markets are priced but not eligible as Super Tips: in testing the model did not beat the base rate there.
Context and data gaps Team news, rest and weather; none of it changes the probability.
No experimental snapshot or context snapshot was stored before kickoff for this match. We do not reconstruct one afterwards, because results and reports collected later would leak into it.
Experimental views Not official calls and never scored. Only the call above is official.
No experimental snapshot or context snapshot was stored before kickoff for this match. We do not reconstruct one afterwards, because results and reports collected later would leak into it.
Low-priority patterns: kickoff time and head-to-head Not used by the model; small samples, mostly explained by team strength.
Tottenham at 17:30 (home)
History since 2020/21Small sample: 11Tottenham won 5 of 11 home league games kicking off at 17:30 UK time, versus 53 of 107 (50%) at other times. Raw records, not adjusted for opponent strength. Only 11 matching games — a small sample.
Crystal Palace at 17:30 (away)
History since 2020/21Small sample: 3Crystal Palace won 1 of 3 away league games kicking off at 17:30 UK time, versus 33 of 115 (29%) at other times. Raw records, not adjusted for opponent strength. Only 3 matching games — a small sample.
Tottenham v Crystal Palace at this ground
History since 2020/21Small sample: 6Since 2020/21: 4 Tottenham wins, 0 draws, 2 Crystal Palace wins in 6 league meetings here (3.2 goals per game). Only 6 matching games — a small sample.
Model check: late afternoon kickoffs
Model check, 2024–2026In out-of-sample tests, home teams in this kickoff slot won 32% of 161 games versus 40% predicted. The gap is larger than chance would usually produce, but we tested several slots, so treat it as a hypothesis to track rather than an adjustment.