Saturday 31 October, 20:00 UK time
Aston VillavFulham
Aston Villa win or draw
74%What must happen: Aston Villa must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.
How likely: the model rates it about 7 in 10 (74%), so in similar matches it would still fail about 3 times in 10. A probability, not a promise.
Main reason: The rating model gives “Aston Villa win or draw” a 74% chance, against 68% in a typical Premier League match over the last three seasons.
What could spoil it: the likeliest losing score is 0–1 (a model illustration, 8%); together the losing scores make up 26%.
Settled on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Postponed, abandoned or cancelled matches are void.
Why this call
The rating model gives “Aston Villa win or draw” a 74% chance, against 68% in a typical Premier League match over the last three seasons.
This season Aston Villa have scored 9 and conceded 12 in 8 league games; Fulham 8 and 10 in 8.
Out-of-sample check (2024/25–2026/27, 213 matches): when the model rated this market 70–80%, it landed 161 times (76%).
What could spoil it
The model still leaves 26% for this to fail; the likeliest losing score is 0–1.
The evidence behind the numbers
What the locked forecast says
Stored when the prediction was locked (30 Oct, 23:10 GMT, version 1, model tl-poisson-v1.1). These numbers are never recomputed, so later results or data cannot change them.
| Result | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win | 48% |
| Draw | 25% |
| Fulham to win | 26% |
Model scoring expectation: Aston Villa 1.54, Fulham 1.07 goals. This comes from the team-strength ratings, not from a shot-quality (xG) data feed. Uncertainty ranges and a factor-by-factor breakdown were not stored with this prediction, so none is shown for it. How the live model was tested.
Every possible score Model illustration from the locked scoring expectation; hover or tap a score.
Final score
Aston Villa 1–1 Fulham
12.1% chance of exactly this score (before kickoff).
Super Tip, Aston Villa win or draw: wins
✓ Wins: Draw · Aston Villa win or draw · Fulham win or draw · Under 2.5 total goals · Under 3.5 total goals · Over 1.5 total goals · Both teams to score
✗ Loses: Aston Villa to win · Fulham to win · Over 2.5 total goals · At least one team fails to score · Aston Villa over 1.5 goals · Fulham over 1.5 goals · Aston Villa not to score · Fulham not to score
Percentages, darker = likelier. ✓ marks scores where the Super Tip wins: together 73.6%, matching the locked 73.6%. Most likely single score: 1–1 (12.1%). Scores with 6+ goals for a side: 0.6%. FT marks the final score.
Every market we priced Compared with a historical base rate, not a bookmaker price.
| Market | Model | Historical base rate | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 total goals | 51% | 42% | |
| Fulham not to score | 34% | 25% | |
| Under 3.5 total goals | 73% | 65% | |
| At least one team fails to score | 48% | 42% | |
| Aston Villa win or draw ★ | 74% | 68% | |
| Aston Villa to win | 48% | 43% | |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | |
| Aston Villa not to score | 21% | 22% | |
| Aston Villa over 1.5 goals | 46% | 49% | |
| Fulham win or draw | 52% | 57% | |
| Fulham to win | 26% | 32% | |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 58% | |
| Over 1.5 total goals | 74% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 total goals | 49% | 58% | |
| Fulham over 1.5 goals | 29% | 39% |
The base rate is how often each outcome happened in Premier League matches over about three seasons; the gap to it is what makes a fixture distinctive. It is not a bookmaker price and says nothing about betting value. Model scoring expectation (from team ratings, not a shot-quality xG feed): Aston Villa 1.54, Fulham 1.07. Totals and both-teams-to-score markets are priced but not eligible as Super Tips: in testing the model did not beat the base rate there.
Context and data gaps Team news, rest and weather; none of it changes the probability.
No experimental snapshot or context snapshot was stored before kickoff for this match. We do not reconstruct one afterwards, because results and reports collected later would leak into it.
Experimental views Not official calls and never scored. Only the call above is official.
No experimental snapshot or context snapshot was stored before kickoff for this match. We do not reconstruct one afterwards, because results and reports collected later would leak into it.
Low-priority patterns: kickoff time and head-to-head Not used by the model; small samples, mostly explained by team strength.
Aston Villa at 20:00 (home)
History since 2020/21Small sample: 13Aston Villa won 4 of 13 home league games kicking off at 20:00 UK time, versus 57 of 105 (54%) at other times. Raw records, not adjusted for opponent strength. Only 13 matching games — a small sample.
Fulham at 20:00 (away)
History since 2020/21Small sample: 11Fulham won 2 of 11 away league games kicking off at 20:00 UK time, versus 25 of 88 (28%) at other times. Raw records, not adjusted for opponent strength. Only 11 matching games — a small sample.
Aston Villa v Fulham at this ground
History since 2020/21Small sample: 5Since 2020/21: 5 Aston Villa wins, 0 draws, 0 Fulham wins in 5 league meetings here (2.8 goals per game). Only 5 matching games — a small sample.
Model check: evening kickoffs
Model check, 2024–2026In out-of-sample tests, home teams in this kickoff slot won 44% of 200 games versus 43% predicted. No gap beyond chance: the slot adds nothing the model has not already captured.