Saturday 31 October, 15:00 UK time
Coventry CityvSunderland
Sunderland win or draw
63%What must happen: Sunderland must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.
How likely: the model rates it about 6 in 10 (63%), so in similar matches it would still fail about 4 times in 10. A probability, not a promise.
Main reason: The rating model gives “Sunderland win or draw” a 63% chance, against 57% in a typical Premier League match over the last three seasons.
What could spoil it: the likeliest losing score is 1–0 (a model illustration, 11%); together the losing scores make up 37%.
Settled on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Postponed, abandoned or cancelled matches are void.
Why this call
The rating model gives “Sunderland win or draw” a 63% chance, against 57% in a typical Premier League match over the last three seasons.
This season Coventry have scored 6 and conceded 15 in 8 league games; Sunderland 6 and 14 in 8.
Out-of-sample check (2024/25–2026/27, 210 matches): when the model rated this market 60–70%, it landed 140 times (67%).
What could spoil it
The model still leaves 37% for this to fail; the likeliest losing score is 1–0. Coventry has little recent Premier League data, so the rating leans on a cautious prior. Coventry have the better recent form (LWWLL vs LLLLD).
The evidence behind the numbers
What the locked forecast says
Stored when the prediction was locked (30 Oct, 23:10 GMT, version 1, model tl-poisson-v1.1). These numbers are never recomputed, so later results or data cannot change them.
| Result | Probability |
|---|---|
| Coventry to win | 37% |
| Draw | 28% |
| Sunderland to win | 35% |
Model scoring expectation: Coventry 1.20, Sunderland 1.16 goals. This comes from the team-strength ratings, not from a shot-quality (xG) data feed. Uncertainty ranges and a factor-by-factor breakdown were not stored with this prediction, so none is shown for it. How the live model was tested.
Every possible score Model illustration from the locked scoring expectation; hover or tap a score.
Final score
Coventry 3–1 Sunderland
3.1% chance of exactly this score (before kickoff).
Super Tip, Sunderland win or draw: loses
✓ Wins: Coventry to win · Coventry win or draw · Over 2.5 total goals · Over 1.5 total goals · Both teams to score · Coventry over 1.5 goals
✗ Loses: Draw · Sunderland to win · Sunderland win or draw · Under 2.5 total goals · Under 3.5 total goals · At least one team fails to score · Sunderland over 1.5 goals · Coventry not to score · Sunderland not to score
Percentages, darker = likelier. ✓ marks scores where the Super Tip wins: together 63.0%, matching the locked 63.0%. Most likely single score: 1–1 (13.1%). Scores with 6+ goals for a side: 0.3%. FT marks the final score.
Every market we priced Compared with a historical base rate, not a bookmaker price.
| Market | Model | Historical base rate | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 total goals | 58% | 42% | |
| Under 3.5 total goals | 79% | 65% | |
| At least one team fails to score | 52% | 42% | |
| Coventry not to score | 30% | 22% | |
| Sunderland win or draw ★ | 63% | 57% | |
| Sunderland not to score | 31% | 25% | |
| Sunderland to win | 35% | 32% | |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | |
| Coventry win or draw | 65% | 68% | |
| Coventry to win | 37% | 43% | |
| Sunderland over 1.5 goals | 32% | 39% | |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 58% | |
| Over 1.5 total goals | 68% | 82% | |
| Coventry over 1.5 goals | 34% | 49% | |
| Over 2.5 total goals | 42% | 58% |
The base rate is how often each outcome happened in Premier League matches over about three seasons; the gap to it is what makes a fixture distinctive. It is not a bookmaker price and says nothing about betting value. Model scoring expectation (from team ratings, not a shot-quality xG feed): Coventry 1.20, Sunderland 1.16. Totals and both-teams-to-score markets are priced but not eligible as Super Tips: in testing the model did not beat the base rate there.
Context and data gaps Team news, rest and weather; none of it changes the probability.
No experimental snapshot or context snapshot was stored before kickoff for this match. We do not reconstruct one afterwards, because results and reports collected later would leak into it.
Experimental views Not official calls and never scored. Only the call above is official.
No experimental snapshot or context snapshot was stored before kickoff for this match. We do not reconstruct one afterwards, because results and reports collected later would leak into it.
Low-priority patterns: kickoff time and head-to-head Not used by the model; small samples, mostly explained by team strength.
Coventry at 15:00 (home)
History since 2020/21Small sample: 2Coventry won 0 of 2 home league games kicking off at 15:00 UK time, versus 1 of 2 (50%) at other times. Raw records, not adjusted for opponent strength. Only 2 matching games — a small sample.
Sunderland at 15:00 (away)
History since 2020/21Small sample: 13Sunderland won 2 of 13 away league games kicking off at 15:00 UK time, versus 3 of 10 (30%) at other times. Raw records, not adjusted for opponent strength. Only 13 matching games — a small sample.
Coventry v Sunderland at this ground
History since 2020/21These teams have not met at this ground in the league since 2020/21.
Model check: afternoon kickoffs
Model check, 2024–2026In out-of-sample tests, home teams in this kickoff slot won 43% of 414 games versus 44% predicted. No gap beyond chance: the slot adds nothing the model has not already captured.