Saturday 31 October, 15:00 UK time
BrentfordvNottingham Forest
Brentford win or draw
73%What must happen: Brentford must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.
How likely: the model rates it about 7 in 10 (73%), so in similar matches it would still fail about 3 times in 10. A probability, not a promise.
Main reason: The rating model gives “Brentford win or draw” a 73% chance, against 68% in a typical Premier League match over the last three seasons.
What could spoil it: the likeliest losing score is 0–1 (a model illustration, 8%); together the losing scores make up 27%.
Settled on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Postponed, abandoned or cancelled matches are void.
Why this call
The rating model gives “Brentford win or draw” a 73% chance, against 68% in a typical Premier League match over the last three seasons.
This season Brentford have scored 14 and conceded 9 in 8 league games; Nott'm Forest 6 and 10 in 8.
Out-of-sample check (2024/25–2026/27, 213 matches): when the model rated this market 70–80%, it landed 161 times (76%).
What could spoil it
The model still leaves 27% for this to fail; the likeliest losing score is 0–1.
The evidence behind the numbers
What the locked forecast says
Stored when the prediction was locked (30 Oct, 23:10 GMT, version 1, model tl-poisson-v1.1). These numbers are never recomputed, so later results or data cannot change them.
| Result | Probability |
|---|---|
| Brentford to win | 48% |
| Draw | 25% |
| Nott'm Forest to win | 27% |
Model scoring expectation: Brentford 1.57, Nott'm Forest 1.10 goals. This comes from the team-strength ratings, not from a shot-quality (xG) data feed. Uncertainty ranges and a factor-by-factor breakdown were not stored with this prediction, so none is shown for it. How the live model was tested.
Every possible score Model illustration from the locked scoring expectation; hover or tap a score.
Final score
Brentford 2–0 Nott'm Forest
8.5% chance of exactly this score (before kickoff).
Super Tip, Brentford win or draw: wins
✓ Wins: Brentford to win · Brentford win or draw · Under 2.5 total goals · Under 3.5 total goals · Over 1.5 total goals · At least one team fails to score · Brentford over 1.5 goals · Nott'm Forest not to score
✗ Loses: Draw · Nott'm Forest to win · Nott'm Forest win or draw · Over 2.5 total goals · Both teams to score · Nott'm Forest over 1.5 goals · Brentford not to score
Percentages, darker = likelier. ✓ marks scores where the Super Tip wins: together 73.4%, matching the locked 73.4%. Most likely single score: 1–1 (11.9%). Scores with 6+ goals for a side: 0.7%. FT marks the final score.
Every market we priced Compared with a historical base rate, not a bookmaker price.
| Market | Model | Historical base rate | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 total goals | 50% | 42% | |
| Nott'm Forest not to score | 33% | 25% | |
| Under 3.5 total goals | 72% | 65% | |
| Brentford win or draw ★ | 73% | 68% | |
| Brentford to win | 48% | 43% | |
| At least one team fails to score | 47% | 42% | |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | |
| Brentford not to score | 21% | 22% | |
| Brentford over 1.5 goals | 47% | 49% | |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 58% | |
| Nott'm Forest win or draw | 52% | 57% | |
| Nott'm Forest to win | 27% | 32% | |
| Over 1.5 total goals | 75% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 total goals | 50% | 58% | |
| Nott'm Forest over 1.5 goals | 30% | 39% |
The base rate is how often each outcome happened in Premier League matches over about three seasons; the gap to it is what makes a fixture distinctive. It is not a bookmaker price and says nothing about betting value. Model scoring expectation (from team ratings, not a shot-quality xG feed): Brentford 1.57, Nott'm Forest 1.10. Totals and both-teams-to-score markets are priced but not eligible as Super Tips: in testing the model did not beat the base rate there.
Context and data gaps Team news, rest and weather; none of it changes the probability.
No experimental snapshot or context snapshot was stored before kickoff for this match. We do not reconstruct one afterwards, because results and reports collected later would leak into it.
Experimental views Not official calls and never scored. Only the call above is official.
No experimental snapshot or context snapshot was stored before kickoff for this match. We do not reconstruct one afterwards, because results and reports collected later would leak into it.
Low-priority patterns: kickoff time and head-to-head Not used by the model; small samples, mostly explained by team strength.
Brentford at 15:00 (home)
History since 2020/21Brentford won 20 of 44 home league games kicking off at 15:00 UK time, versus 21 of 55 (38%) at other times. Raw records, not adjusted for opponent strength.
Nott'm Forest at 15:00 (away)
History since 2020/21Nott'm Forest won 10 of 31 away league games kicking off at 15:00 UK time, versus 13 of 49 (27%) at other times. Raw records, not adjusted for opponent strength.
Brentford v Nott'm Forest at this ground
History since 2020/21Small sample: 4Since 2020/21: 2 Brentford wins, 0 draws, 2 Nott'm Forest wins in 4 league meetings here (3.0 goals per game). Only 4 matching games — a small sample.
Model check: afternoon kickoffs
Model check, 2024–2026In out-of-sample tests, home teams in this kickoff slot won 43% of 414 games versus 44% predicted. No gap beyond chance: the slot adds nothing the model has not already captured.