Touchline Lab · 2026-27 · generated 2026-11-03 20:18 UTC
Matchweek 9 recap
Final3–3Super Tips won–lost
0pending
4passes
3.9winners expected (usually 2–5)
3 of 6 is within the normal range for these probabilities: no sign of a problem, and no sign of brilliance either. 10 of 10 fixtures have a locked call; 10 of 10 played or called off. 6 settled Super Tips is far too few to judge the model; nothing is tuned on one weekend, and no advantage is claimed.
Every Super Tip
-
Brentford v Nott'm Forest✓ won · 2–0Brentford win or draw · 73% · strongBrentford must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.
-
Coventry v Sunderland✗ lost · 3–1Sunderland win or draw · 63% · leanSunderland must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.Before kickoff the model's likeliest losing score was 1–0 (11%); it finished 3–1. This shows how the model saw the risk, not why the match went the way it did.
-
Hull v Ipswich✗ lost · 2–2Hull to win · 55% · leanHull must win. A draw or a win for Ipswich loses.Before kickoff the model's likeliest losing score was 1–1 (11%); it finished 2–2. This shows how the model saw the risk, not why the match went the way it did.
-
Man City v Brighton✗ lost · 0–1Man City over 1.5 goals · 58% · leanMan City must score at least 2 goals.Before kickoff the model's likeliest losing score was 1–1 (10%); it finished 0–1. This shows how the model saw the risk, not why the match went the way it did.
-
Aston Villa v Fulham✓ won · 1–1Aston Villa win or draw · 74% · strongAston Villa must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.
-
Liverpool v Arsenal✓ won · 0–1Arsenal win or draw · 69% · strongArsenal must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.
Coverage: 10/10 fixtures with a locked call · 10/10 played or called off
Passes
Not recommended; graded separately and never counted in the hit rate. 3 of 4 would have won.
-
Chelsea v Man Unitedcandidate would have won · 2–0Pass. Candidate, not recommended: Chelsea win or draw · 68% · passChelsea must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.
-
Bournemouth v Leedscandidate would have won · 2–0Pass. Candidate, not recommended: Bournemouth win or draw · 70% · passBournemouth must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.
-
Tottenham v Crystal Palacecandidate would have won · 2–0Pass. Candidate, not recommended: Tottenham win or draw · 72% · passTottenham must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.
-
Newcastle v Evertoncandidate would have lost · 0–1Pass. Candidate, not recommended: Newcastle win or draw · 72% · passNewcastle must avoid defeat: a win or a draw both count.Before kickoff the model's likeliest losing score was 0–1 (8%); it finished 0–1. This shows how the model saw the risk, not why the match went the way it did.